Ryan Vanderwert wrote:
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Sandro Bechini wrote:
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Ryan Vanderwert wrote:
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No. You can see the mating, I am sure you are well qualified to work it out
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Well I did look quickly awhile ago when she first started and there wasn't anything glaringly obvious from a Tesio perspective, which is what interested me and why I asked. The term 'calculated formula' in the article was something else that also interested me, as that's pretty much what I involve myself in with pedigrees with Tesio and x path. Sorry to have taken up your time.
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Hi Ryan Ok to answer your question The term 'calculated formula' was a bit of poetic licence from the author of the article but what it refers to is a calculation based on my own sire and proven nick statistics I don't use Tesio, I don't use X/Y sex balancing, I don't fully understand your Cornerstone theory and how it provides superior performers, and I don't use any other fancy theory I have been keeping my own 'results-based statistics' on sires of litters that have produced superior performers charting the proven nicks in a mating for over 10 years now and have my own statistics for every sire that has sired what I consider to be qualifying winner This entails going through the results of every race run in Australia and NZ every day and applying my time standards to each race win I disregard results of any races under 440m as I am not looking to breed short coursers, even though its no guarantee you can get a stayer with the way our bloodlines are moving The statistics are over 2 distance ranges, above 440m & then I segregate the 600m above results into different spreadsheets I have been refining and modifying my stats over a number of years Every sire thus has 2 spreadsheets with the matings that have produced the qualifying winner I then chart the sires in the first 3 lines of the pedigree and eventually come up with the most common nicks Thus over a period of now 10 years I have developed my own nick rating per sire and have a pretty good indication of which outcrosses and which local lines have been proven to work with which sires over multiple matings I have ratings for virtually for every sire in Australia and NZ for the last 10 years I apply those nick ratings across the first 3 generations of the pedigree of the dam and then also back from the dam into the sires first 3 lines of the pedigree Then I come up with a group of sires which are split into 4 categories - Established (progeny over 3 years), first season (progeny under 3 years old), Freshman (no runners yet), Imported Sires From there I take the top rated in each category, I look at the racing traits of my own female, i.e. her distance range, early speed, stamina, did she pass dogs on the rail or take them out wide, her size and her temperament and importantly her keenness to chase, I don't mind if a bitch was aggressive, as long as she wasn't a non-chaser If I know the sires temperament it helps From that range of higher pedigree based rating sires I will then I apply all those traits for my bitch to what I think the sire will add to the table and Then I make a judgement call from there If I want to add stamina I will use the 600m+ ratings, if I want to add more early pace I will use the 440m+ ratings The process of keeping stats is very labour intensive the way i do it The nick ratings for the bitch's pedigree can take me 2 days to do for a bitch as I consider every sire available , not just the 4 or5 flavour of the month sires or the latest new unproven kid on the block There has to be reasons to use them Commerciality does play a part in the decision making, sometimes the best mating is very uncommercial and If I was a PAW or Borda operation then that would be my choice but as I am only a hobby breeder I have to keep the commercial angle in play but it will be the best commercial option available Its probably a bit too simple for you Ryan, but its what I understand and I only do this for myself If anyone wanted me to do a full analysis given the time I spend doing this work it would cost in the range of $1,000 to $2,000 per mating thus its not offered as I know that no one would want to pay for it I am not re-inventing the wheel, just modifying it to suit my purposes The inspiration for what I do came from Razordot's stats on AGF that he no longer does and also from listening to PAW and studying his matings
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